Alpha Alpha Pilot: Exploring Alpha [April 2025]

April saw mixed performance across all asset classes, with Bitcoin and gold leading the way. Trump lowered import tariffs from most U.S. trading partners and is considering lowering tariffs on China.

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Executive summary

• April was a mixed month across all asset classes, with BTC and gold leading the price gains.

• On April 9, President Donald Trump announced that most U.S. trading partners, except China, would have their importsTariffs were reduced to 10% for 90 days. He also said that tariffs on Chinese goods will be "at some point"demote, which means that trade tensions between the U.S. and China could be eased. In addition, the two countries agreed to significantly reduce and suspend some tariffs for an initial period of 90 days, valid until May 14, 2025.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned last month that he expects tariffs to bring "Higher inflation and slower growth", but he pointed out that the Fed would be better off waiting for the situation to become clear before changing monetary policy. 
• Key macro events in May include interest rate decisions in Australia, China and New Zealand.
• BTC's 1-month performance correlation is negatively correlated with most benchmark asset classes, including gold.

• The U.S. spot BTC ETF realized net inflows of $3 billion in April after two consecutive months of net outflows. Meanwhile, Trump temporarily reduced tariff rates on most U.S. trading partners and the market is optimistic that U.S.-China trade tensions could ease.

• ARB/OP (0.89) exhibits the strongest price performance correlation, followed by DOT/ATOM (0.85) and DOT/POL (0.84).

• with regards to BTC vs ETH Yes, the price ratio (BTC price divided by ETH price) remained above the +2 standard deviation (SD) level in April.

• Our Style Factor Screening tracks momentum, value, growth and risk in the Layer-1 and Layer-2, DeFi, Gaming and NFT categories. Below is a screening of select top crypto tokens in the Layer-1 and Layer-2 categories sorted by market capitalization.Layer-1 and Layer-2 tokens performed differently.SOL (+17.6%), POL (+16.1%), BTC (+14.4%), and AVAX (+14.0%) led the way. while TON (-18.2%) fell the most.
• Our events section shows recent and upcoming events for selected tokens, as well as important macroeconomic events.